2019 NFL Draft Recap

I wasn’t planning on writing a recap of the 2019 Draft. But then Daniel Jones happened. It is nearly impossible for the Twitter medium to really do this discussion the justice it requires.

Wonder and I did the Top 50 Draft Board so that we could have clarity on what the stock of prospects looked like BEFORE they were taken. You know our views BEFORE any players were selected by the Giants, thus ensuring that we are not making anything up AFTER the selections. Isn’t it remarkable then that literally #50 on that Board was QB Daniel Jones?! When Wonder put the order together, this was not an accident. This player was a flashpoint. Jones had something that was good enough to make the Top 50, but other things that made him unworthy of Round 1 consideration. Of course we had NO IDEA that many weeks later he would intersect with the NY Giants the way he did.

These last few days have been a learning experience. There is not teaching, only learning.

My background is in trading and risk management. I am extremely experienced in the decision-making process. Professional traders learn very quickly that you cannot become emotionally attached to any position. You’ll bankrupt your account and lose your livelihood. What took place with Jones going 1.06 overall was classic overdrafting. Overdrafting has nothing to do with whether a player will bust or not. Please reread that sentence. In the past, I have explained that the Draft is all about VALUE. I articulated this concept to Wonder, who has come to understand how value is the lowest common denominator in decision-making. Everyone is dealt a set of cards to play in the draft. Those are your draft slots. That is your currency. Each team has to use that currency as efficiently as possible to yield the greatest fruit. It is not a single draft pick but instead a series of MANY decisions. The goal is not to buy the bottom or sell the top each time. Instead, the goal is to keep making a series of above average decisions time & time again. If your range of outcomes on a single decision is anywhere from 0-100, all you need to do is eliminate the 0-10 section and you’ll be left with decisions that are in the 11-100 zone. “Don’t do stupid.” If you take stupid out of play, you’ll end up with a 55 average, batting 0.550 in baseball parlance. If you keep doing that 0.550 swinging each time at bat, you’ll end up way ahead of everyone else over the long haul. It is not sexy. It is methodical, grounded, and unemotional.

So who in the NFL operates this way? Unsurprisingly, it is the New England Patriots. Each year they are handed the worst cards in the deck. They pick at/near the bottom of each round every year. Yet they maximize the value from those cards by dispassionately and patiently waiting their turn. Better yet, they trade down much more often than they trade up, a subject we will talk more about a little later. Lastly, they do not chase Free Agents, and end up with additional compensatory draft picks when teams like the Giants sign their Free Agents (i.e. Nate Solder) away. For the record, this year the rich got richer, as the Patriots selected (parenthesis Wonder’s ranking)

1.32 WR N’Keal Harry (37)
2.45 CB Joejuan Williams (44)
3.77 EDGE Chase Winovich (36)
3.87 RB Damien Harris (35)

We believe it could have been worse for us Patriot haters, as they could have taken WR Parris Campbell (16) instead of Harry. Regardless, we think the Patriots did well.

So let’s review 4 elements of the NY Giants Draft.

1) What do Tedd Ginn Jr, Tyson Alualu, Eli Apple, Jeff Lageman, John McCargo, Darius Heyward-Bey and Daniel Jones all have in common? They were all OVERDRAFTED in Round 1. This does not mean they will BUST (although McCargo busted). It means all of these very high picks could have easily been taken by the same team 10-20 spots later in the draft. At the top of the draft, that is enormous. No one had these players anywhere in the same zip code as they were selected. This list of players is (overall) not a bad list. They started many games in many seasons for their teams. But they (generally speaking) were never elite and that goes further to point of (2) coveting.

1a) Sometimes I hear the lame excuse, well you can’t always trade down. Last night, lol, the Giants had a pick 11 spots later. Picking Jones at 1.17 would have been an overdraft as well, but just not as egregious as 1.06, which is fundamentally flawed. Essentially the Giants were bidding against themselves. Remember that “0-10” I was referring to in the range of decisions? This was an absolute zero. 0.0. Any GM should be fired for this offense. I am not kidding. (After posting, how about this corroboration from an AFC South front office Exec: “That pick was inexcusable.”) Gettleman was the mullet at the poker table. This was extreme incompetence bordering on negligence. I do not care if Daniel Jones is the next Joe Montana, that is not what we are discussing. Gettleman completely wasted precious draft resources. For those of you out there who argue that Gettleman was not sure if Jones would be there at 1.17, we’ll get to that a little later. One more time, remember, Daniel Jones could go to the Hall of Fame. It does not matter- those are the unicorns. Over a 10-20 year period with a series of decisions, he will most likely not be a unicorn and must not be treated like one.

2) Stop coveting. If you stop believing that you are the oracle of all greatness & failure in divining future impact from players, you’ll start becoming more agnostic to your peers’ abilities and your own. The result will be less interest in trading up and more willingness to trade down. That the Giants traded up 7 spots for Baker and gave up a late 4th and early 5th is bad. Situationally, it was worse, because there were literally 9 players in the Secondary that were there of similar skill. Of course, the Giants will tell you that Baker was much better. Maybe. Reread the first 2 sentences of (2) and you will become a better drafting organization. As a reminder, most rookie draft picks are out of football after 4 years. This is the evidence and verification of the need to stop coveting.

3) Everyone has 3 gears in their Draft car. One to go forward (move up). One for Neutral (stand pat). One to go backward (trade down). There were 36 trades made last year. 6 were made this year on Day 1. Another 16 trades were made on Day 2. Apparently, the Giants are the only team in the NFL that has 2 gears, one for neutral and one for forward. Yes, in the past 13 years, the Giants have not traded down ONCE. That is a systematic destroyer of value, since there is more value in trading down. (See Richard Thaler, University of Chicago.) Last year the Patriots made 7 of those 36 trades. Care to guess how many of those 7 trades they traded down? 6 out of 7 times.

3a) Not trading down in the past 13 years is further proof that the Giants covet (2 above).

4) I was reading in horror on Wednesday about word leaking that the Giants were “taking Jones, as early as 1.06.” It was clearly not misinformation. There has been a leak in this organization for many years now. I am fairly certain I know who it is. This is unconscionable for any team to be discussing their plans. In trading, it allows you to get “fronted.” I could imagine Warren Buffett, as he planned to make his next purchase of stock… hmm, ya see stock XYZ? I’ll be buying billions of dollars of that tomorrow in the open market.


As bad as everything in (1) through (3) above is, (4) is much worse, because you are not the mullet anymore. Now you are the mullet with a tell. How do we see this? When teams trade ahead to grab Jack Conklin and Leonard Floyd in front of Eli Apple. Or when TB fronts ahead for Doug Martin before David Wilson.

I asked a team source for a reaction to the Titans and Bears both trading over the Giants for those top two targets (the Titans took Conklin at 8, the Bears took Floyd at 9). The response… well let’s just say it really isn’t suitable for a family newspaper. But suffice it to say they weren’t happy. “P—ed off” is how a league source described them.

This year, lol, Jones was so far off (/into) the OVERDRAFT reservation that no one bothered fronting Jones at 1.06. Congratulations- you finally got your man despite your attempt to notify everyone beforehand. The Giants eat like a bird and sh*t like an elephant.

Gettleman, in discussing his decision to take Jones at 1.06 instead of waiting for 1.17, said that he “was not willing to risk it.” Notice other words in this recounting… “Full Bloom Love.” Infatuation. While I respect a certain amount of conviction, when you get emotionally attached to any selection, the end is nigh. In trading parlance, Gettleman became married to his position. BIG MISTAKE.  The Giants were willing to part with a 2.37 pick for Josh Rosen but Arizona wanted a Round 1 pick. You have to have other options. The key to making a good decision is having a plan and alternatives. The Giants had MANY alternatives to Daniel Jones if he was not there at 1.17. Yes, we have the benefit of 20-20 hindsight to know it was only the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins who were interested in a QB to any significant degree. But that was pretty much well understood BEFORE the draft. Jacksonville took Foles. Denver took Flacco. The alternatives to Jones were Haskins, Lock, and Rosen. That is 4 choices and only 3 teams. That is the reverse of musical chairs. That is multiple flexibility for the QB pursuer. Yes, obviously there is less “infatuation” with other choices, but you have to remove emotion from this and be willing to let Jones go if he is not there at 1.17. He would have been there. You take Josh Allen at 1.06, you get an elite (2nd ranked player in the entire draft) pass rusher, and you take Jones at 1.17.

Let’s talk more about this risk to Jones not being there. Tough Sh*t. Divorce yourself from coveting. Do you really see Bill Belichick behaving this way? Team first, individual players last. Belichick traded away Richard Seymour in his prime. He is not married to his players, even if they are 3 time First Team All-Pro.

You take Josh Allen at 1.06. You tell Arizona- “I am drafting a QB if you do not deal me Rosen. My offer is 2.37.” If they are intractable and still demand a R1, you tell them no, it is not happening. Somewhere between 1.07 and 1.16, the Redskins and even possibly Miami will take QBs, but that weakens the Cardinals’ hand considerably. So what is dangerous for the drafting side becomes powerful on the Josh Rosen side. THE GIANTS HAD INTEREST IN ROSEN. He was a good alternative. In fact, he was the BEST alternative in our mind. If the Giants could not draft for a QB, they could trade for a QB. There was zero need to pay so dearly for Jones. It will end up costing them a premier pass rusher with Elite All-Pro ceiling.

Unless you are willing to walk away from any deal, you hold no leverage in getting a reasonable deal. Think about that the next time you are in the car dealership. Always have a backup plan. Rosen, Haskins and Lock were backup plans to a preference for Jones. Additionally, if you do not like all of those choices enough, next year’s QB class has enough to get you one too as a final part of your backup plan.

Ernie Accorsi had a backup plan if he could not get Eli Manning. Accorsi coveted Manning way too much, and overpaid for Manning. Accorsi’s backup plan was Ben Roethlisberger. I would argue that that would have worked out just as well if not better, especially considering the Giants paid a R1, R3 and R5 to move 3 spots. Accorsi made up for the enormous deficiency in 2005 by paying off the tab with a HUGE haul of Webster, Tuck and Jacobs. Those 3 players earned 6 rings. 

No one TRULY knows who is going to end up being a successful franchise QB. Maybe ALL 4 (Haskins, Lock, Rosen, and Jones) become fixtures. Maybe none of them do. Stop believing you have all the answers. Stop being in Full Bloom Love. 

The epilogue is that the Cardinals waited too long. Their milk sat on the counter (literally overnight), and spoiled before their very eyes. OMG did they #$%@ up their negotiations. Ever hear the expression- “Buy the rumor, Sell the news”? Well, the news was the drafting of Kyler Murray so you had to move Rosen before that peak. When your demands were too high and you weren’t getting your Round 1 pick, it was time to lower it. 2.37 was 5 slots from Round 1. They ended up getting a 2.48 from MIA. Then that became a 2.62 plus AZ’s R5 pick next year. If MIA (and WAS) took a QB ahead of the Giants, the Giants would have been the ones to land Rosen. 

Remember the “reverse musical chairs” argument? EVERYONE LOOKING FOR A QB GOT VALUE EXCEPT THE GIANTS. The Redskins? They got Haskins at 15, without making any trade up. The Dolphins? Rosen for 2.62 less a R5 pick. Denver? They weren’t even in the hunt and came back in, picking up spoils by taking Drew Lock at 2.42.

Let’s look at our Rankings vs what was taken:

NYG      Jones       1.06     50
WAS     Haskins  1.15      9
DEN      Lock        2.42      11
MIA      Rosen      2.62      10 (Draft in 2018)

We are not the final arbiter of value. Our rankings, while verified to be better than the GMs historically, are not always correct, and certainly can be wrong for any and possibly all 4 players. Nonetheless, it is clear that the Giants were the motivated buyers. You can argue that it was not a great QB class, and all of these choices were too much. All the more reason to stop coveting and start being dispassionate about your decisions.

As long as the Giants were prepared to walk away, they would have ended up with either:

Josh Allen (1.06), Daniel Jones (1.17) and Deandre Baker (1.30-4.132-5.142) OR
Josh Allen (1.06), Dexter Lawrence (1.17) and Josh Rosen (2.37) OR
Josh Allen (1.06), Dwayne Haskins (1.17) and Deandre Baker (1.30-4.132-5.142)

Instead it is Jones, Lawrence and Baker. Maybe Rosen, Haskins and Allen are the ones who bust. It is not about that. It is playing the percentages. It is about maximizing your value. The Giants admitted that Allen and Jones were equal on their board. So it is easy to see that if they played their draft cards right, they could have easily had both. Allen went at 1.07 to the Jaguars. Jones was the player who was going to arguably last a lot longer. And if the Redskins took Jones you would end up with Rosen at 2.37 or at worst Haskins at 1.17.  

With or without Josh Allen, our QB is Daniel Jones. He is the future. When Bill Belichick is in Full Bloom Love with a player, I will revisit my assessment of what went down in the 2019 Draft.

Between overdrafting, coveting, never trading down, and leaking their intentions, this organization is not competitive. Gettleman has made a number of mistakes, including many poor Free Agent decisions. At least the team is confronting the brutal facts by recognizing that it needs to rebuild. It is a painful process. A revamping of best practices is needed to reestablish this team as one of the premier franchises. I suspect that that will not happen until they bring in an outsider. This feels so much like the 1970’s. It was only when an outsider was hired as GM that meaningful changes came about.

2019 NFL Draft: Sleepers

We are looking for guys who will be drafted on Day 3. Everyone else will be asleep at the wheel on Saturday. After reading this blog post, you and I will be watching to see if the Giants can find some hidden treasure. Day 3 is critically important to this franchise, because they sit with EIGHT picks that day:

Round 4 #108
Round 4 #132
Round 5 #142
Round 5 #143
Round 5 #171
Round 6 #180
Round 7 #232
Round 7 #245

Here are Wonder’s sleepers who will be available.

LB David Long. No, not the Cornerback. The Linebacker. Must take him in Round 4 if has not gone yet. Vacuum cleaner. See our Top 50 Board, Ranked 29th.

CB Mark Fields. We have this guy ranked at 46th overall in our entire draft. Go find ANYONE who has his Fields ranked that high. Anyone. (See our Top 50 Board.) So it goes without saying he is our number 1 Day 3 sleeper.

T Oli Udoh. Huge guy, not fat. Weight training, muscle building are key to harnessing his future. Relied on his size in college to run over people. I saw something in him. Huge long arms. Strong. If you give him a chance, and God forbid you have a Coach like Scarnechia, he can be a starting Tackle or Guard in the NFL. These are the kind of guys who you want to take in R5 and R6. Look at all the losers who Reese kept taking back there in Round 6 who went nowhere. This is a guy who could go somewhere. Comparison: Mo Collins, the road grader from Oakland.

CB Corey Ballentine. He went to that mecca of football called Washburn. Athlete. Ran track. Quick twitch. Not just speed in the 40, it was how he moved. Longish arms. At worst, nickel back. His upside can be a starting CB. Looks the part. So at Round 5, there is value in his upside. Work ethic, good character. Give him a shot.

EDGE Jordan Brailford 3-4 OLB. Versatile. Will be better than guys drafted in R3-R4. I think he goes in Round 5 and he is a good pick in Round 5. Always possible he falls to R6-R7 or even goes undrafted.

S Evan Worthington. Already has the NFL body. Probably has underachieved. Underdrafted, potential. Creates value for the right team that can coach him up.

CB Jordan Miller. Needs to get stronger. Body can handle another 10-15 lbs. Will be underdrafted. That is what you want in R5-R7. A guy with upside. He has upside. Fill out body-wise. Fast, good hands, athleticism, good ball skills, good hips.

G Ben Powers. A lot of experience protecting Kyler Murray. Does not have speed and athleticism that will wow scouts. So he will fall in the Draft. He is not a guy I am afraid to have on spots 6-8 backing up my Offensive Line.

EDGE Ben Banogu. Good for 3-4 OLB. Or maybe hand in dirt if gains weight. Big, strong, fast, athletic, has experience. Nobody has him rated. I would rate him 100-120, and he won’t probably get taken until Round 6. Take him. The Giants have so many picks back there, he can be one of them.

2019 NFL Draft: Wonder Brandt

Gil Brandt is a talent evaluator that Wonder, generally speaking, agrees with. Wonder thinks that in past years, as he is getting older, he may be farming some of his work out and guiding the process a little more than doing a deep dive on every single player. We do not know this, but it is a sense of what we see. Click on the above Link for his Top 150 Draft Board.

Many prospects are NOT discussed because there is general agreement.

Some noteworthy differences (Brandt ranking, Wonder ranking):

OL Connor McGovern (29, 95). Fairly reliable, fairly standard journeyman OL that you can always get in R3-R5. Round 1? That is way too rich for my blood.

EDGE LJ Collier (34, 72). Some upside, does not stand out. I follow a lot of TCU guys, and this is not one of them that high.

T Kaleb McGary. (36, 80). See McGovern, just another guy you can find in R3-R5.

T Dalton Risner (42, 90). Just another guy. There are 30 of them. Can’t play LT for sure. Not sure if he can play RT either, because he may get beaten like a drum. It used to be that you could hide a guy at RT, but not anymore. Too many quality pass rushers. He has some value as a Center or Guard (per Brandt) but I am not going to draft him in R2 for that… R3-R4 fine, hence my rating, and hence why he will be overdrafted.

DE Zach Allen (43, 150). Overachiever in college. Round 5. Likes to play football, has grunted and grinded his way through. Will take up space. Special teams, fill in, second string.

RB Miles Sanders (45, 110). I do not understand this at all. Doesn’t even compare to Singletary or Montgomery (guys being discussed in the same zip code of R2).

T Tytus Howard (50, 135).

QB Will Grier (52, 125). For all Giants fans who want this guy, please watch his Combine and college tape. Too small. Doesn’t have the arm. Doesn’t appear to read the defense that well for a guy with as much experience as he has. So I do not see the upside in him. And it is even worse for Ryan Finley (58, 158). Brandt was right, he just missed by a “1” on the ranking. The best Finley can hope for is 2nd string in the NFL. That is his upside, so why is he ranked in Round 2? Finley has no talent. Other than that he is great.

DE Anthony Nelson (64, 150).  Too slow, can’t play DE in the NFL. Ridiculous.

CB Trayvon Mullen (73, 73). Shocked that Brandt agrees with me, but kudos. Everyone has this guy as a Top 5 CB in the draft. I do not. And neither does Brandt.

S Darnell Savage (87, 41). At least Brandt recognizes some value here, because most do not even have Savage anywhere, let alone 87 (or in my Top 50). Great Sleeper value.

S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (93, 19). I really like CGJ. See our Top 50.

TE (Nauta, Knox, Warring (96 97 and 98, 160) These are all R5 guys.

What are you drafting a QB for? To be a backup? Or to find a chance at becoming a bonafide starter? The comparison is stark with QB Jarrett Stidham 101 vs QB Tyree Jackson 108. Stidham has no chance to be a starter in the NFL. At least Jackson, who is lacking in experience, has the potential with good coaching to leverage tremendous athleticism. The ceiling for these 2 prospects could not be any greater. Yet there they are, 7 slots apart, which makes no sense.

I like guys like RB Justice Hill (109, 24) and RB Devin Singletary (112, 65). These are sleeper value guys.

LB David Long (151+, 29). Brandt does not even have him on his Top 150 Board. God I hope he falls to some stupid round like R4 or R5. Someone is going to steal him, and I hope it is the Giants or Jets. There is such confusion, everyone has CB David Long (who I like) ranked well, and the LBer who I love is nowhere to be found.

The Gil Brandt of 30 years ago would have never let LB David Long or CB Mark Fields slip this far to not be in the Top 150. This is why I do not think he is doing all of this work. He does have 48 others in our Top 50 inside the Top 112 spots.




Wonder’s Top 50 for 2019 NFL Draft

Our draft analyst Wonder has reviewed and ranked the Top 50 Players in this year’s NFL Draft.

For new readers, Wonder’s track record has been strong, beating the GMs in relative player performance. Historically, he is better on the busts/underperformers than the strong performers. Nonetheless, his confidence in “football players” is a worthy endorsement when you get it.

For all of our readers, a reminder or two. The comparisons do not imply this player will BE that player, but rather who they look like and/or who they PROJECT TO if they put in the work, are drafted BY THE RIGHT TEAM, and stay relatively healthy. Some (many) players need the right coaching and/or system to flourish. As an example, a 3-4 Defense would leverage the value of a Dexter Lawrence much more than a 4-3, so that a team using a 4-3 would be wasting some of his value.

Medical is something we (and almost all draft analysts) do not know enough about. NE player Malcolm Mitchell, underdrafted (in R4), saved the Patriots in SB LI , but a zillion knee surgeries later he is out of the game. This is why they are underdrafted.  Jamel Dean this year is another case in point. He has everything. R1. But we won’t rank him due to injuries.

If you do not see a player you like on this list and/or are disappointed he is not higher, understand that this list is all about pre-draft VALUE. As an example, if God whispered in your ear the future that Tom Brady was going to win 6 rings, and transported you back to the 2000 draft, would you blow a Round 1 pick on him? NO! You’d take him in Round 4 or Round 5 because his value back then did not require you to reach any higher for his services.  Think about this when reading about S Mark Fields. To even be mentioned in the same sentence as Darrell Green is a major testament. He was second string. He’s Ranked 46th only because, like a Tom Brady, he doesn’t have the snaps for these GMs.

This is one of the strangest drafts that we are analyzing, because it is so top-heavy with DL and LBers.  CB Marginal Round 1. Rich in second and third round value. Many available. But not worth a top 25 pick.

1. DT Quinnen Williams: Stud. Naturally carries 300 lb. Hasn’t hit weight room. Super fast for a guy his size. NATURALLY STRONG. Swallows up blockers & RBs. Dominates inside of OL. Gets pass rush up the middle. Can play 1, 3 or 5 technique. Only position I don’t see is 4-3 DE. Highest floor of anyone in the draft. And still has dominating upside ceiling. Guaranteed to be a good player. Comparison: A bigger stronger faster version of Warren Sapp. 

2. DE/OLB Josh Allen: Can line up as 3-4 OLB or 4-3 DE. May be the next Derrick Thomas. Upside is off the charts. Bigger upside than Bosa. Unbelievably fast and quick. Strong for a guy that fast. Great pass rushing skills. Can bend and dip his knees and hips. Great hands. Some downside risk- does he freelance on his assignment? Must learn a better swim move because reliant on wide pass rush. Can be a beast. As a Jets fan, I want them to take Williams or Allen. I am hoping SF takes Bosa so that it’s just Williams or Allen. Comparison: Derrick Thomas and Von Miller.

3. LB Devin White. Speed, athleticism, and desire are off the charts. Will become a team leader. His only downside is I wish he was a little taller and weighed a little more. But I do not want him gaining weight and losing speed. Will learn to shed blockers and be more effective from a run stopping perspective. All over the field. Just a football player. Coverage skills will be outstanding. Will cover a Barkley out of the backfield, but not if the Giants take him! Comparison: faster version of Derrick Brooks.

4. DE Nick Bosa. Long term question about his health and speed. Clearly has experience. His biggest attribute is hands and well-designed moves to rush the passer. Have we already seen the best of Bosa in college, or is there more? I don’t know. Comparison: lesser version of Joey Bosa.

5. DE Clelin Ferrell. True beast. Looks the part. Weight, size, arms, speed, power, hands. Has experience in big games. Wouldn’t surprise me if Ferrell ended up a better pro than Bosa. I like him better than most, and if he somehow is there at 1.17, he can make your draft. Comparison: smaller lesser version of Bruce Smith.

6. DE Montez Sweat. Either you give him this ranking, or you take him off the board for medical. Heart problem. Cannot play DE, cannot seal the edge. He can rush the passer baby! Big time! NFL OLB in 3-4 is where he should go. Potentially could be a 4-3 OLB, would take a year to learn that. Faster than virtually every WR in the Draft! Needs to hit weight room, gain 20 lbs, add strength, seal edge, then he’ll be an outstanding DE. 6’6″ with long arms. Crazy athleticism. So he just needs a year to develop. Comparison: add 20 lbs and he’ll be Mario Williams.

7. QB Kyler Murray. It’s amazing what an inch, 15 lbs and Baker Mayfield’s success will do for your draft stock. Murray can only be a QB in the NFL if you run shotgun 90% of the time with a spread offense. If you are in the Northeast, what do you do with this guy in December and January? That is a problem. Murray has trouble under center because (1) he will not be able to see where people are or (2) the ball will be batted down. On 4th & 3, how does he make that quick pass? Otherwise he is #1 overall. He has everything else. Unbelievable accuracy, unbelievable arm. His anticipation is tremendous, probably his best attribute. His escapability, feet, run are great. There never has been a QB like him who can run and then flip the ball to a receiver at the last second like he can (or take off and run for 15-20 yards). Can he survive in the NFL? Yes, because he played baseball. He instinctively slides before someone kills him. Will he hold up against a blitz/sandwich? That, and the vision, are the only things that will hold him back from being the best QB prospect in years. Comparison: Cross between Russell Wilson and Michael Vick.

8. DE Rashan Gary. Physical beast. Great size. Great speed. Superb combine. Looked the part. Only question has been his overall production in college. 4-3 DE. Needs to develop more technique… the exact opposite of Nick Bosa. So more potential than Bosa. Comparison: faster Ziggy Ansah.

9. QB Dwayne Haskins. Throws the ball with only his arm. Natural passer. Throws it 40-50 yds effortlessly but with only his upper body torquing. If he learns to step into the ball with his legs, forget about it, it is off-the-charts potential. He has touch too. Doesn’t look like he’s hit the weight room like the pros. When he gets pro fitness training, runs wind sprints, lifts weights, will be hard to bring down. Has much better potential in his body than almost all other QB recruits. Listened to him speak, very smart. Diagrammed plays with Mariucci, sharp. Has command and understanding of the game. Giants need to take him if there at 1.06. Comparison- Better version of Ben Roethlisberger, none of the baggage.

10. DT Ed Oliver. The only problem.. did not meet the preseason hype. Quick burst, smaller. Speed. Is he maxed out weight-wise? If he lost 20 lbs could become a DE or like MLB 4-3 CJ Mosley. People will think I am crazy for saying that. Team needs to find a place for him. Football Player. Just too good. Runs and tackles too well. He’ll make it somewhere. Off field issues. Minor knee injury. Underperformed senior year, not crazy about that or else would rate higher. Comparison: poor man’s Aaron Donald.

11. QB Drew Lock. OMG this guy has soared in my valuation. Has impressed me more than any other QB draft prospect from a relative standpoint since the draft process began. He is cool, calculated, and confident. The best arm in the draft, a cannon. His accuracy is excellent, but his only downside is that film showed a little bit of Brett Favre in him where he forced the ball into (unrecognized?) coverage too much with too many turnovers. Can coaching correct that? Not sure. He is the one QB who will profit most from carrying the clipboard his first season. If he processes the NFL game/coverage, an unbelievably natural QB with great upside. Bad throws (congestion in coverage) give him a low floor too. Comparison: combination of Brett Favre/Matt Stafford ceiling and Jeff George floor.

12. OLB Brian Burns.  Classic 4-3 OLB. Only thing he needs is to gain 10-15 lbs of weight and get stronger and that is it. Unbelievable athleticism. Fast, can jump, quick to the ball, sideline to sideline. Winner. Great on a bad team. Not bad to end up with 10 sacks from LBer position. Does need some strength in upper body. I like him a lot, more than others. Comparison: Bud DuPree if he gains some strength.

13. NT Dexter Lawrence.  Immovable object. Will be special in the NFL. The quintessential NT. Ran a 5.00 weighing 340 lbs. Unbelievably quick for someone of that size. Great footwork and agility. Despite size, can push pocket and rush the passer up the middle.  If you run a 3-4 and have trouble stopping the run, this is your guy. Will immediately change the feel of your whole defense. No telling his potential if he hits weight room, loses 20 lbs, and gets experience with his hands. If the Giants can trade for Rosen, take White at 1.06 and Lawrence at 1.17, it will instantly change their team. Comparison: Bigger, stronger and faster than Haloti Ngata.

14. LB Devin Bush. The only reason he is not Top 10 is because he is 5’11”. If he were 6’2″ 245 lbs, he would be the 5th pick in the draft. Football player. OMG. Speed, speed, speed, desire, desire, desire. Basically the same player as Devin White but a little smaller. Only question is his size, and that is it. With the NFL playing this way with passing 2:1 vs running, put this guy at OLB and OMG. If your team has the coverage at the Line of Scrimmage, and Bush is freed up clean, he will tackle everything in sight. Comparison: Derrick Brooks.

15. TE Noah Fant. Played behind T.J Hockenson so did not get to see as much playing time. NFL body, NFL speed. Excellent athlete. Just needs NFL coaching and can be a dominant down-the-field TE. Limited blocking ability. Good feet and good hands. Can be a red zone nightmare for opponents. Belichick would make this guy All-Pro in 3 years. Comparison: a little bigger than Evan Engram, but not as polished a receiver.

16. WR Parris Campbell. So good, so fast, cuts on a dime, hands of glue. I’d take him at 1.17 if Haskins taken 1.06. (Andy’s only note here- Dread.) Good guy. Incredible feet and quickness. Not musclebound. But sleek. End arounds, bubble screens. Snatches the ball out of the air like no one I have seen. Once he gets the ball, forget it. Can put on 10-12 lbs of muscle w/o losing any speed. Insane vertical. Crazy quick. How does anyone cover this guy in the slot/option routes?! Improved every single year of college. His career is predicated on who his QB is and where he goes. Absolutely love this guy. Comparison: OBJ with less baggage.

17. DT Jeffrey Simmons. Off field trouble, the only real concern. According to some reports, seems to have matured. Was not invited to Combine. Huge upside. Tape of his play shows potential of really good player. Strong, quick feet. Attacks with explosion. If he slides, take the risk, because would be a steal. If he does not go in Round 1, they will wake up and someone will take him at 2.33 the next day.  Comparison: Bigger faster version of Justin Tuck.

18. WR D.K. Metcalf. Has everything. Size, speed, strength, NFL Body, the whole nine yards. Muscle upon muscle. Two injuries. Makes me ask what he’s ingesting. Grandfather is Terry Metcalf from STL Cardinals and Uncle is Eric Metcalf from CLE Browns. Just seems that something bad will happen with him medical-wise. Is he a natural route runner? I believe he needs less muscle to be a more fluid receiver. So boom or bust lotto ticket. Comparison: body of Terrell Owens but without receiving abilities and mental stability issues.

19. S Chauncey Gardner Johnson. One of my favorite guys in the 2019 Draft. Hasn’t played that much but has a really high ceiling. Built like a football player. Good speed and good strength, only going to get better. Very smooth for a Safety. I like him at Free Safety, but needs a little more experience. Tracks the ball, all over the field. Not afraid to hit. A slot WR coming through the middle will not like getting hit by Johnson. Comparison: less experienced version of Brian Dawkins.

20. C Garrett Bradbury. Very athletic for the position. Strong. Can gain weight and muscle without much trouble. Very experienced. Far and away the best Center in this Draft. Quality player. Held his own vs good teams, even vs Clemson. Comparison: a modern version of Joe Fields.

21. T Andre Dillard. Overdraft Offensive Tackle at your own risk. The best of a bad lot. Experienced. Good feet and quickness. I do not think any of these guys can play LT, but if any of them can, it would be Dillard, which is why he gets the slight nod over Taylor. Good athlete, can pass protect. Not a guy that will pancake you. Not a road grader. Project to ceiling as a solid starter. Comparison: a little larger version of Kelvin Beachum.

22. T Jawaan Taylor. Serious weight problems. Questionable motivation. But if he reaches potential, can be a humongous nasty road-grading RT. NFL body with 35″ arms. Only did a mediocre bench at the Combine. No Pro Day yet. Maybe Scarnechia, the right system, and the weight room can whip him into NFL readiness. Comparison: upside is Marcus Cannon.

23. DT Jerry Tillery– 295 lbs 6’6” chiseled, speed. If Dexter Lawrence not around at 2.37 and Tillery is, take him. Body of a tall RB or WR. So little body fat. Can gain about 20 lbs without losing any skill or speed. Incredible potential if he gets stronger and bulks up. Needs to develop his body and hands. Size and speed is crazy. Will not be great in Year 1 because weight not there. After that, look out. Comparison: Ed Too Tall Jones as a Tackle, and can even move Outside.

24. RB Justice Hill. The best of a mediocre RB group. The only player in this year’s draft who could actually become a scary weapon. If not for his size, would be rated much higher… with another 2″ and 15-20 lbs would be a top 10 pick… thus cannot be a bell cow. Academic All-American. Off the charts potential in catching screen passes. Because he was not used this way nearly enough at Oklahoma State, he will need to learn these skills. Comparison: a smaller, poor man’s version of Alvin Kamara.

25. RB Josh Jacobs. . Experienced. Hard working. Tough runner. Pretty good pass catcher. But not that fast, not explosive. Solid and dependable. Unclear, lack of experience in blocking/blitz pickup. Survivor, will be a football player. Unspectacular but will deliver solid starting for years. Comparison: a little bigger better version of Duke Johnson.

26. DE/OLB Jaylon Ferguson. Hybrid 4-3 DE or OLB. Needs to transition to a higher level in the pros, because played in a small school. Wasn’t at Combine, saw his Pro Day, pretty good talent. Has to be harnessed. Potential with NFL body. Strong. Hard to know if he makes the jump. Comparison: Derrick Harvey (taken 8th overall and out of football in 4 years).

27. CB Byron Murphy. Football player. Young. Decent size. Hands ok. Tracks the football. All over the field. Underrated, and will get better in the pros. Smooth transition on his hips. Good footwork makes him my #1 CB in this draft. Only thing that prevents him from being a top 25 CB is that he is 5’11”. Also not super fast. Comparison: a weaker version of Aeneas Williams.

28. CB Rock Ya-Sin. NFL Body. Ready to play Day 1. Team leader, tough as nails. Upper body strength. Played at Temple, so won’t get benefit of doubt for weaker competition in college. So lack of experience against top flight competition. High character. Not as good at press coverage as I would like. But very good player. Upside potential is there. Comparison: a CB version of Rodney Harrison.

29. LB David Long. The same as Devin Bush, almost the same exact player. Had a smaller knee injury in 2017. Arms are a little shorter than Bush. That is the only difference. So tipping balls & coverage are less optimal. A little less thick than Bush, so therefore not as strong as Bush. But he can get strength in weight room. Relentless. All 3 guys (White, Bush, and Long) are cut from the same cloth. If you miss on White early, you can get Long in Round 2 (/Round 3?) and it works. Comparison: a smaller, slightly weaker version of Derrick Brooks.

30. DT Christian Wilkins. Everything you want? Character. Class. Intelligence. Experience. Leader. Won championships. But I am not impressed by his play. A good player on a great Defense so he looks better. Not sold as a Round 1 pick. If you get him 33-40, good value. There is some bust potential here too. Soft. Doesn’t look as strong as I would like for an interior DT. If he lost weight and gained strength, he could play at 290-295 and be a 4-3 DT. Comparison: Mike Pennel.

31. G Cody Ford. Oklahoma had a very good OL. He will not make it at Tackle. Slow and not that athletic. He has size and experience, keeping Murray clean. Good pass blocking skills. His upside will be tied to him getting in better shape. Gotta hit the weight room, lose weight and gain muscle. Everyone loves his athleticism but I do not. These guys wait a lifetime to make money at the Combine, and he does 19 bench presses? Noah Fant did 20 and he’s a 240 lb TE! Buyer Beware. Who is going to win the Battle of the Bulge when he is in the trenches vs Dexter Lawrence, who benched 36 reps?! Good luck blocking him. Comparison: better version of Andre Smith.

32. S Juan Thornhill. Strong Safety, put on 10-15 lbs. Best all around athlete, maybe in the entire draft. Insane vertical. great speed. Huge jump. Basketball player in High School. Smooth, can do a lot of things on the field. Press Corner. Huge wingspan. Great leaping ability to deflect balls. Needs a year to find his place on your team. Comparison: a better faster healthier version of Marcus Maye.

33. RB David Montgomery. Played all 4 years at Iowa State. Good solid football player. Good size, good vision. Tough, fights. Good blocker. Not explosive speed guy. Will be in the NFL for years to come. Only thing that worries me is that he ran the ball too much in college, so wear and tear is accumulative. Good character guy. Round 2 is where he belongs. Comparison: Poor man’s Doug Martin with better character.

34. S Johnathan Abram. Biggest hitting Safety, plays bigger than his size. Good athlete. Not super fluid. Can play nickel LBer which is more in vogue. Football player. Great in the locker room. Leader on the field. Comparison: faster smaller version of Landon Collins.

35. RB Damien Harris. Another Alabama RB who split duties and we have no idea how to judge him. Good size and speed. We just have not seen enough snaps. Was it just a dominating OL? Is it more like Ingram or more like Richardson? Should be a good solid pro but harder to evaluate ceiling. Comparison: poor man’s Mark Ingram.

36. OLB Chase Winovich. Runs all over the freaking field. Madman. Really good quickness. 110% motor. Best as 4-3 weakside OLB because not strong enough as a 3-4 OLB or 4-3 DE. Tackling machine. Won’t impress you on surface but at the end of the day he racks up all the tackles by getting to the ball. Comparison: tall Zach Thomas.

37. WR N’Keal Harry. Excellent NFL body. Long arms. Big hands. Strong, not super fast but fast enough. Not explosive, but his short game 10-20 yards where he can use his big body and big hands is going to be invaluable to a team. Can block. Will be a good NFL WR. Tom Brady would kill for this guy.  Comparison: Anquan Bolden.

38. TE Irv Smith. Typical Alabama TE. Doesn’t get much action, but a good football player. I see it all the time, the pros use them more and their value rises. Upside. Can get stronger, gain weight. More quickness than direct speed. Very good over the short middle. Will be difficult for a LBer to handle him. Good YAC after he gets the ball. OK blocker. Comparison: poor man’s OJ Howard.

39. G Jonah Williams. Played Tackle, will not hold up there, lacks strength and speed to play LT. Lacks experience inside. Has tons of experience in big games. Knows football. Really smart football player. Survivor. Should be able to play as a decent pro for a number of years, but will not be great. He’d be a lot better in the Denver-old-zone-blocking scheme, than the Ravens/Cowboys drive-your-guy-off-the-line scheme. Comparison: Clint Boling.

40. WR A.J. Brown. Great athlete. NFL body. Only 6’0″ tall, the only reason he does not get a higher grade. Long arms. Unbelievably productive. Just. Gets. It. Done. Uses his hands well, great hand eye coordination via Baseball. Not a blazer. Will be a good football player in the NFL. Comparison: A taller Steve Smith.

41. S Darnell Savage. Too small for NFL standards. I would convert him to play slot corner in a nickel. Blazing speed, great hips, great instincts. Loves to play football. Figure out how to use him. Get him on the field! Long arms for his size. This is a guy who can match up well vs Edelman, a Patriot killer. Comparison: bigger better version of Buster Skrine.

42. TE T.J. Hockenson. Some people have him evaluated as 5th overall in the 2019 Draft. No Freaking way. I just don’t see it. Most well rounded TE in the draft, but not crazy about his athleticism. Only 17 reps on the bench press? I am worried about him dominating at College level but peaking out too early. He should be able to block better than he blocks. He will be a solid pro but I do not see the star upside. Comparison: Reminds me more of Jack Doyle than Jason Witten.

43. CB Andraez Williams. Blazing speed. But needs to add significant strength. Needs to improve change of direction and hip movement. I am not drafting him in Round 1. He is only 185 lbs, can easily gain 15-20 lbs. Good long arms and big hands. I am not taking a CB in Round 1 who can’t start right away. A lot of upside potential. Comparison: Antonio Cromartie if gains weight, keeps speed and learns to control body.

44. CB Joejuan Williams. Different kind of CB. Big, strong, not really fast, if he gets his hands on you in the first 5 yards, you’re dead. He’ll throw off the timing via press coverage. Paired with a Safety over the top is the best situation for him. Could play a Tampa2. Value in the right system. Helps against the big WR like Julio Jones or Michael Thomas.  Comparison: Poor man’s Richard Sherman.

45. G Chris Lindstrom. These linemen from BC, Iowa and Wisconsin can make their way in the pros if they have requisite ability. He can give you versatility and back up at Center too. Athletic. Can get bigger and stronger. Does not have a tire around his gut. Comparison: Brian Winters.

46. CB Mark Fields. Hardly played football. Weird. 2nd string on Clemson. When he played he was tremendous. Prototypical NFL CB. Speed to burn. 4.37. Strong. Good hips, smooth transition. Needs a chance. He can be had in the 3rd round, and a steal from a value standpoint. NFL teams will pass on him in R1-R2 but that is a mistake. Deep value, could get selected as late as R4-R5. Off the charts potential. An inexperienced cheaper version of … Comparison: Darrell Green.

47. CB Deandre Baker. Everybody has him as a top rated CB except me. Experience, big game. I do not like his hip fluidity. Requisite speed. Can play press and coverage? Without the fluidity, his upside is limited so instead of R1 value he becomes R2 value. Comparison: a weaker version of Malcolm Butler.

48. WR Deebo Samuel. Quick, fast, stocky for a guy that athletic, so carries his weight well. If he had 3 more inches he’d be a R1 pick. Good hands. Competitive. Good start and stop, good runner with ball in his hands. Hasn’t played or developed enough in running the route tree. Doesn’t seem to be able to use speed on the field. Will play faster in the pros if he can get better with the route tree. Comparison: poor man’s Sterling Sharpe.

49. S Taylor Rapp. Strong Safety. Did not run 40 at Combine. Looks like he can gain more weight. Good ball skills. Plays smart, plays tough. Durable despite the fact that he hits. Covers TEs. Comparison: Patrick Chung.

50. QB Daniel Jones. Experienced QB. Played 3 years. Hard to evaluate as Duke and his receivers were not particularly gifted. May become the quintessential game manager due to average arm strength. Knows how to play football with good pocket presence. Not particularly strong, was smart enough to not do the bench press at the Combine. Upside is a good pro QB if in the right system.. Patriots? Comparison: slightly smaller but better version of Mike Glennon.

Honorable Mention: CB Julian Love, C Erik McCoy, LB Mack Wilson

Volatile Sleeper: QB Tyree Jackson. Huge. Athletic. Fast. Big hands, big arms. Cannon arm. Monster hands great for a QB. Potential is unlimited if he lands with the right team and right QB guru. Would take him at San Diego or New England at end of Round 3/compensatory pick. Sits on bench for 2-3 years. Could be best QB in the draft, but lacks coaching and experience, so cannot waste big resources on him too early. Needs to be taught how to become more accurate.