Twas the day after Christmas
This blog predicted moans
‘Cause a stealth bull market was brewing
For a kid named Jones
There is little question that Joe Schoen is going to re-sign Jones. He will end up paying Jones more than you think. It will be QB eye-popping numbers. Don’t say I didn’t warn you. Even his biggest proponents will take pause when they see the tab. But that is the price of the most important position on the field. There are readers of this NY Giants blog that harbor doubts about Jones. They will be skeptical about Jones being worthy of the insane money that Schoen is going to pay him this offseason. A franchise tag may be part of those negotiations. Jones has earned the contract.UltimateNYG, Daniel Jones Franchise QB, Dec 26 2022
People were delusional about $20M. Still delusional about $25M. $30M? Think again. It is now almost two months later, and here we are here with QB eye-popping numbers. Schwartz is thinking ($190M over 5 years for) $38M.
And then Florio drops a $45M number for what Daniel Jones’s camp (may be?) floating, and every Giants fan is freaking out. Predictably. Despite my warning.
This is a classic negotiating tactic called anchoring. You mention a super high (or if buying, low) number to start discussions to psychologically “anchor” the other side to a high starting price. It has already worked. On you. Because when Jones ends up with a deal in the high $30’s per year, you’ll think that Jones gave up something. And you will be happy that he did not sign at $45M. Jones is not getting $45M. He knows that. But he is going to get mid to high $30’s, which most Giants fans would never have believed even a short while ago.
Let’s shift gears to Jones’ contract sparring partner, Saquon Barkley. The two go seemingly hand in hand this offseason in questioning how Schoen will handle them. For our opinion on Barkley, you have to go back another 2 months to October 23. It has not changed:
Pacheco’s cap hit is $0.7M. I am surprised it is that large, but that only tells me the cost of re-signing Barkley is going to be ginormous, ~20X near $15M per yr, if some NFL team is stupid enough to pay that. The problem for these second RB contracts is they are a cap suck. Elliott is 6 yrs $90M. McCaffrey is 4 yrs $64M (and Carolina got out of that quickly enough). The takeaway is simple- every dollar you blow at this position, you have less to pay the Left Tackles, the Edge Rushers and the Quarterbacks. You can get 80-90% of Barkley for 10-20-30% of the cost. Aren’t the Breidas ($1M cap hit) and Brightwells ($0.7M) in your own backyard proving that? Isn’t Andy Reid, the coach of one of the top 3 contenders this year, proving that?UltimateNYG, Do NOT Re-sign Barkley, October 23 2022
Was it enough that we highlighted an unknown rookie Round 7 draft pick who would go on to be another in a long list of starting Running Back nobodies to win a Super Bowl???!!!
In Barkley’s final stretch of 9 games, he rushed for 495 yards. That is a less than eye-popping 55 yards per game. What happened? He got hurt. That is what RBs do. And at the tail end of the season the Offense graduated and began flowing through Jones instead of through Barkley. That is what is supposed to happen when your QB ascends.
September 2022 Preview: Super bullish on Barkley in 2022
October 2022: At peak Barkley, don’t pay this guy in the Offseason
December 2022: Get used to it, and pay Jones eye-popping numbers
January 2023: Barkley finishes the second half of 2022 with 55 yards per game
February 2023: Pacheco and the Chiefs get a ring
February 2023: The Giants and Jones are kicking around eye-popping numbers
How many of you watched the playoff game between Dallas and SF? Ezekiel Elliott gets the monster $15M per, but dirt cheap Pollard is the star that stirs that drink. Pollard goes down and the Cowboys lose. Do we need to keep getting pounded, pelted, and assaulted by reason after reason why you have to let Barkley walk? Any player or fan who sobs about what a leader Barkley is, how the Giants can’t let him go, is thinking with their heart and not their head. The Giants will need this money for Dexter Lawrence, Andrew Thomas, Daniel Jones and as much cap space as they can squeeze for their Super Bowl run. That is how the Chiefs did it. This has been the blueprint for nearly every Super Bowl winner for the past 17 years.
Pay Jones. Don’t pay Barkley. It’s a Quarterback league. It is definitely not a Running Back league. Sorry, not sorry.