In the last 3 years, the Giants are 12-36, which is THE SINGLE WORST RECORD IN THE NFL over that period of time. Consider that the Browns were 0-16 in that period.
Giants fans are optimistic. We put out a poll for what fans expect from the first 5 games of 2020. This way we are able to gauge sentiment. I clipped that coupon because the Giants will be underdogs in all 5 games.
PIT. At Chi. SF. At Lar. At Dal.
Here are the results.
Giants play PIT, chi, SF, lar, dal first 5 games. How many do they win?
— Andy Furman (@UltimateNYG) May 8, 2020
The expectation from the mode and majority of fans is a 2-3 record. If the Giants go 2-3 I’ll be pleasantly surprised. This is a tougher portion of the schedule. I believe their best chances are the first 2 games, where they face PIT and at Chi. I expect them to be bigger underdogs in the other 3 games.
The pure math based on a sum of expected value for the moneyline gives the following (games 1&2 available, estimated for Games 3-5) chances for victory- 36%, 31%, 28%, 36%, and 25% = 1.56 games. So the math says they’ll win between 1 & 2 games. The bright side of a tough start to the season is that if the Giants can somehow pull out a 3-2 record, they will most likely be playoff bound.
Not so fast, says Wonder: “The Giants are 50% to win 0 games and 50% to win 1 game, there is no chance they win 2 games.” I think the only opponent Wonder (at this early juncture) does not respect very much is the Bears, so he is counting the other 4 games as a loss.
This entire exercise is a reminder that the Giants are young and their schedule is not easy. They face the NFC West, who was a combined 38-25-1 last season. One of the 3rd place teams they draw, TB, now has a veteran presence in Brady and Gronk, so that game will not be easy. Dallas and Philadelphia have swept the Giants the last 3 seasons.
Where are the Giants as they head into 2020? Rebuilding. That’s where they are. Everyone is excited about Joe Judge. Count me among them. People around the league are in consensus that he’s got the Belichick/Saban right stuff. He’s certainly saying the right things. And he’s got the Giants new draft picks saying the right things.
Is a new head coach going to make a difference in Season 1? I tend to think not. He’s inheriting the single weakest team of the last 3 years. I won’t be very popular with this remark, but Gettleman needed to take Darnold and then he’d have DE Josh Allen the following year. That was the way to rebuild. We said Barkley was a luxury the Giants could not afford. Two losing seasons later I think we can all acknowledge that RB does not rebuild. QB OL and DE rebuilds. The 3 fundamentals are QB, protect QB, and rush the QB.
It was a major effort from Mr. Hogmollie, Dave Gettleman, who noted after selecting Tackle Andrew Thomas that
“We want to fix this Offensive Line once and for all.”
Where was this focus in 2018-2019? Beyond free agency salvage (sorry, we said Solder was a 2 year patch and that’s exactly what he was), it’s been Hernandez and little else. This year we got Thomas, Peart and Lemieux, R1 R3 & R5 concentrated focus. This is how you rebuild. These are the lasting changes that were needed in 2018 which are coming 2 years later. Better late than never.
In 2018 Gettleman got a grownup as his head coach and a hood ornament at 1.02. Win now.
In 2020 Gettleman got a Belichick disciple and a reload at OL. Rebuild.
This is a future I can believe in. Just do me one favor. When Barkley is doing amazing things in 2021 in the 4th year of his rookie deal, please don’t tell me that he was the pick. Gettleman put the cart before the horse and now he’s finally getting the horses. Once and for all.