Schmitz and Hyatt added on Day 2

The story of the NY Giants 2023 Draft is how GM Joe Schoen addressed team needs in sequential descending order.

  • The Giants most acute need was CB. The Giants traded a R5 and R7 pick to get the certainty of moving up from 1.25 to 1.24 and took CB Deonte Banks.
  • The Giants second most acute need was C. The Giants watched Tippmann get taken by the Jets earlier in the round, patiently sat, and took C John Michael Schmitz.
  • The Giants third most acute need was WR. The Giants traded a R4 pick to move up from 3.89 to 3.73 and took WR Jalin Hyatt.

On the whole this has been a very solid draft. Banks and Schmitz were two of Wonder’s players he eyed for the Giants as potential value. Banks went in R1 with R2 value, but this was circumstantial to a thin draft where a majority of players taken did not have R1 value. Banks fits Wink Martindale’s system. Wonder likes the player, who has good hips and tremendous athleticism. His weakness is when his back is to the ball. Schoen was not taking chances in having another team front him for the Corner.

Schmitz was a perfect score of 10 for being taken at 2.57. Great value, great need, and this player may be a 10 year starter.

“C John Michael Schmitz – Plug and play. More of a mauler type of player. Powerful running blocker, tough. Effective zone blocker. R2 value. Ceiling is ~ 2nd team All Pro. I do not think you go wrong with either one of these guys (Schmitz/Tippman). COMP: Bigger version of Mike Webster.

Wonder 4/23/2023 Pre-Draft Analysis

Schmitz was who we wanted.

I love it when a plan comes together. Of course there is always risk to any selection, but this puts Jones in a position to succeed.

The third round pick was WR Jalin Hyatt. Although we did not review the player pre-draft, the Giants organization wanted him at 2.57 along with Schmitz and was willing to give away their Round 4 pick to move up 16 spots to get him. I preferred the bigger body WR, Cedric Tillman, but we understand that the Giants wanted more speed. Together with Banks and Schmitz, these 3 players make the Giants ready for the 2023 season. Schmitz should be a Day 1 starter and we expect Banks and Hyatt to see decent playing time. A starting role for Banks should come in due time. Hyatt will be used in certain packages to keep opposing defenders from playing too close to the line of scrimmage.     

While Giants fans are fairly pleased with the results from Day 1 and Day 2, there is a cost. The Giants do not pick again until the R5 compensatory, 5.172. They have given up a R4, R5 and R7 pick in order to secure the certainty of those selections. Daniel Bellinger was a R4 pick. David Diehl and Kevin Boss were R5 picks. And Ahmad Bradshaw was a Round 7 gem. So these picks do not have to be throwaways. Considering how well Daboll coached these young players up, the tradeups imply the Giants really wanted Banks and Hyatt. At this point, we have too much respect for Daboll to challenge their right to secure the players they are targeting. In a draft where we ourselves wanted to trade down, we were willing to trade up 3 spots from 1.25 to 1.22 to grab Nolan Smith. That Smith fell to 1.30 is enough evidence to remind even us that we are guilty of the same behavior, namely, coveting a player and wanting to trade up to secure that player.

What does trading up mean at the end of the day? Statistically, Thaler and Massey found that we overpay for the right to choose. I do not think that any Giants fan will disagree with the following statement: Schoen and Daboll were willing to overpay to secure the players they wanted. It just means that you are increasing the bet on the particular players you took. When you trade up, it is akin to “doubling down” on your conviction. You are concentrating your picks.

Original PickOriginal ValueActual Draft PickActual Draft Value

If we used the “old” Draft Value Chart from the 1990’s, it says the Giants got paid to move up. We intuitively know that that cannot be correct. There is no free lunch. The Draft Value Chart we linked to here is more rigorous than Jimmy Johnson was. It also ties into surplus value, which is a far better verification of true cost of the pick. The smell test is on the tails (extremes)- the old draft chart implies that picking in the middle of Round 1 is equivalent to 1000 Draft picks in Round 7. This draft chart implies that Round 1 is equivalent to 14 Draft picks in Round 7. That is more reasonable. The math indicates the Giants gave up the NET equivalent of a very late Round 3 pick (3.100) to get the set of a players that they wanted.

SUMMARY: The Giants sequentially addressed need at CB, C, and WR. Banks, Schmitz and Hyatt are a good crop. We like Schmitz for value. The Giants paid to get the certainty of the players they wanted.

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